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Absolute Value Research

The following is a complete collection of articles published on

Minyanville and Absolute Value Research:

 

The Worst Possible Asset Class to Invest in Right Now-Feb 18, 2011
"Research suggests the asset class that offers the poorest long-term returns from today's valuation levels is commodities."
From the close on date of the article to the January 20, 2016 low, commodities went down 45.95%.

Oil Spikes Have Always Led to Stock, Commodity Bear Markets-March 7, 2011
A 48% commodity bear market started the next month. The S&P went down by 21.5% from its April 2011 high to its October 2011 low.

Commodities Now Resembling Tops of 1951 and 1980-March 16, 2011
From the close on date of the article to the January 20, 2016 low, commodities went down 43.84%.

Why It's Extremely Risky to Hold Gold Now-March 24, 2011
From the date of the article to the December 2, 2015 low, gold declined by 27.04%.

Gold's Average Price Is Second-Most Overvalued Since 1791-March 29, 2011
From the date of the article to the December 2, 2015 low, gold declined by 26.13%.

Indicator Suggests No New Silver Yearly Closing Highs Until 2034-April 7, 2011
Silver has not had a new yearly closing highs since this article. What makes this prediction even more remarkable is that on the day of the article silver was trading 29.3% above its 2010 yearly closing high. From the day of the article to its December 14, 2015 low, silver dropped by over 65%.

Silver Most Overbought Since at Least 1712-April 12, 2011
Silver declined by over 65% from the date of the article to its December 14, 2015 low.

Indicators Suggest Silver Headed for Single Digits-May 16, 2011
Silver declined by over 59% from the date of the article to its December 14, 2015 low.

Indicator at Level Where Stocks Have Historically Outperformed Silver by 1,928%-May 31, 2011
From the date of the article to December 2, 2015, stocks outperformed silver by 323%.

Indicator Warns of 78% Collapse in Gold's Purchasing Power-June 10, 2011
From the date of the article to gold's December 2, 2015 low, gold's purchasing power dropped by over 35%.

Why Stocks Will Annihilate Commodities-July 28, 2011
From the date of this article until December 16, 2015, stocks beat commodities by 177%.

What Happens When the Dow Is Down Eight Days in a Row?-August 3, 2011
"In summary, this indicator suggests that at some point in the near future stocks will go higher from here." The Dow went up 54% from the close the day of this article to their May 21, 2015 high.

Low RSI of Wilshire 5000 Says It's Time to Buy, Then Sell-August 9, 2011
The article was spot on as stocks bottomed on the exact day of the article and rallied 12% before declining 13%
.

Indicator Warns of 93% Collapse in Silver's Purchasing Power-August 23, 2011
So far, silver's purchasing power has declined by 73.5% in its bear market.

What Is the Fair Value of Gold? Ask Stocks.-September 7, 2011
This article was extremely bearish on gold within one day of gold’s all-time high.

Chart Pattern Suggests New Lows for Silver - September 19, 2011
From silver's close of the date of this article, to its low a week later, silver declined by 29.68%.

Trendlines Suggest Silver's Fair Value To Be in the Pre-Teens-September 28, 2011
On the date of the article, silver closed in the $30s. On August 26, 2015, silver hit $13.97.

Bullish Signs for Stocks, Silver-October 6, 2011This was 2 days after the April to Oct 4, 2011 -21.5% correction bottom. The market did not have another correction for 3.5 years.

7 Analogs That Help Explain Current Stock Market Action-November 25, 2011
The December 1816 and Late January 2003 analogs look like the best matches. The market went up 74% in 8 years and 84% in 4.7 years respectively. Silver went up over 15% from the date of the article to its Leap Day 2012 high.

ARMS Moving Averages Are Unequivocally Bullish-December 5, 2011
From the date of the article to May 21, 2015, the S&P 500 went up 69%.

Indicator at 0.2% Offers Clues to Direction of Bonds, Stocks and Commodities-Dec. 15, 2011
"This indicator suggests that stocks will significantly outperform long term treasuries over the next 15-19 months."
Over the next 19 months stocks outperformed long term treasuries by 48%.

Data Shows QQQ Has Declined 10% From January High 91% of the Time-January 13, 2012
"1. This indicator is not robust and will eventually fail." This turned out to be prophetic as 2012 was the first year the QQQ did not have a major drawdown from the January high. However, one could have still managed to eke out a tiny profit by Jun 4, 2012 before the uptrend resumed.

Silver Down 91% in Presidential Election Years Since 1917-January 23, 2012
From the date of this article to the August 26, 2015 low, silver declined by 56.52%

Silver Sets Volatility Record Going to At Least 1784-February 8, 2012
From the date of this article to the August 26, 2015 low, silver declined by 58.84%

Silver May Be Trading Below Its Recent Inflation-Adjusted High in the Year 2139-February 16, 2012
From the date of this article to the August 26, 2015 low, silver declined by 58.3%

Is Warren Buffett Correct About Gold?-February 29, 2012
From the date of the article to July 23, 2015, gold declined 37.53%.

Precious Metals Bulls, Expect Silver to Hit New Lows-March 5, 2012
From the date of this article to the August 26, 2015 low, silver declined by 58.62%

Silver May Be Starting Yet Another Crash-March 20, 2012
From the date of this article to the August 26, 2015 low, silver declined by 56.56%

Indicator Suggests Precious Metals Stocks Are Due for a Big Rally-March 26, 2012
The rally did not live up to the hype, but gold stocks still managed to go up by 9.38% in less than 6 months.

Tracking the 10-year Note: Indicator Hitting All-Time Low Says Stocks Will Hit All-Time High-April 11, 2012
From the day of the article until May 21, 2015, the S&P 500 went up 55.97%.

Cotton Indicator Hits All-Time Low and Strongly Suggests the Soft King Will Double-April 17, 2012
Cotton did not double. In retrospect, this indicator did not work because the rally leading to the top was significantly greater than any other in the time period the data in this article covers (since 1967).

10-Year Note Yield Hits All-Time Low-May 30, 2012
From the date of this article until the December 2013 research report
(which reversed this call), bond yields went up over 40%.

Top 10 Extreme Bond Indicators-June 5, 2012
"In summary, when bond yields have declined rapidly, buying stocks has been the way to go."
From the date of the article to May 21, 2015, the S&P 500 went up 61.21%.

What Happens When Bond Yields Are Lower than the Inflation Rate?-July 6, 2012
"Every time there have been negative bond yields, the inflation rate has declined by at least 55%."
The inflation rate declined from 1.70% on the day of the article to -0.20% in April 2015.

Another Bond Indicator Suggests Stocks Will Hit All-Time Highs-August 2, 2012
"this indicator suggests stocks are the way to go over the next 16-18 months."
From the date of this article to January 15, 2014 (17.4 months), the S&P 500 went up 35%.

Indicator at Levels Only Seen Near the Epic 1932 and 2009 Stock Market Lows-August 17, 2012
This article predicted the S&P would hit 1800 by Nov. 30, 2013. On November 30, 2013 the S&P closed at 1805.

What Assets Perform Best During Quantitative Easing?-September 14, 2012
Stocks went up 37% from the date of the article until the end of Quantitative Easing III.

TIPS Reaches an All-Time Record Low of -1.67%. What Are the Implications?-September 20, 2012
Gave sell recommendation to 5-year TIPS. This article was within 6 calendar days of the 5-year TIPS all-time highs. Note this was Absolute Value's first TIPS article, thus making it likely the greatest sell call in TIPS financial history.

What is Bad for the United States is Good for Stocks-October 17, 2012
From the article until the May 21, 2015 high, stocks went up 46.12%.

Debunking the 'Fiscal Cliff" Myth-November 8, 2012
From the article date to the May 21, 2015 high, the S&P went up 54.97%.

What is the Fair Value of the S&P? Ask Baa Long-Term Corporate Bonds-November 19, 2012
"...the S&P would need to go up by a third to hit fair value."
From the article date to the May 21, 2015 high, the S&P went up 53.92%.

What is the Fair Value of the S&P? Over 20% Higher-December 4, 2012
From the article date to the May 21, 2015 high, the S&P went up 51.72%.

When Will Expected Inflation Hit 2.5%?-December 13, 2012
Called the 10-year note & 30-year bond the most overvalued in history 3 days after the 10 and 30 year TIPS all-time high. Note this was Absolute Value's first article on 10 and 30 year TIPS, thus making it likely the greatest sell call in 10-year and 30-year TIPS financial history.

When Interest Rates Rise, Which Assets Go Up and Which Go Down?-January 24, 2013
While oil only went up a few percent until interest rates peaked in December 2013 (see December 2013 article below), stocks went up 23%.

What Happens After Stocks Were Up Big in January?-February 1, 2013
Stocks went up 22% for the rest of the year.

Precious Metal Stocks Most Oversold Relative to the S&P 500 in History-March 1, 2013
" Once gold stocks bottom, they seem to have a 15- to 20-day rally."
While gold stocks indeed rallied 16 days, the problem is they bottomed on March 6 which would have provided only a 3% return from the article date to the peak. However, the indicator would have correctly alerted you to sell once the rally hit the 15-20 day window.

Extreme Indicator Alert: A Multi-Month Gold Stock Rally Appears Likely-April 8, 2013
Here is a good example of an indicator that did not work out. All prior signals led to at least a 26% move from the signal to the peak. All prior peaks were 38-441 days after the signal. This one only went up 4% and peaked 6 days later.

5 Dramatically Oversold Gold Stock Indicators-May 8, 2013
All of the 5 indicators gave off signals on April 17 & 18. From the April 17 low to the April 25 high, gold stocks went up 14%. However, the indicators suggested a bigger rally.

History Shows Gold Stocks Are Ready for a 'Magnificent' Rally-June 3, 2013
From the May 17, 2013 signal to the August 27, 2013 high, gold stocks went up 18%. However, once again this was far less than past instances.

Indicators Suggest Gold Stocks and Silver Will Double-July 1, 2013
While they did not double, from the June 27, 2013 signal to July 18, 2014, gold stocks went up a respectable 31%. From the Jun 26, 2013 signal to August 28, 2013, silver went up 35%.

Bond yields rise at the 2nd fastest pace in history. What does this mean for stocks and bonds?-December 1, 2013
"The first step is to cover your bond shorts." Bonds bottomed the month of the article.

Indicator suggests corn set to have aMAIZEing returns-December 8, 2013
Corn went up 12% to the March 9, 2014 article which was bearish on commodities.

Coffee indicator at levels which has always led to 517% returns-December 15, 2013
Coffee went up 72% to the March 9, 2014 article (less than 3 months) which reversed this call.

Copper indicator hitting all-time low suggests copper will hit an all-time high-December 22, 2013
Copper went down by 6% from the day of the article to the March 9, 2014 article which reversed this call.

What asset class performs the best after the inflation rate gets down to 0.96%?-December 29, 2013
Commodities up 10% to the March 9, 2014 article which reversed this call.

Heating Oil Indicator Hitting All-Time High Suggests Heating Oil Will Hit All-time High-January 5, 2014
Heating Oil up 2.47% from January 5, 2014 to the March 9, 2014 article which reversed this call.

The Yen-January 12, 2014
While the briefly bullish commodity posture got reversed on March 9, 2014, this lone currency play got orphaned when Absolute Value did not issue any free research for the rest of the year after April 15. In any event the downside in the Yen from the data of this article through August 31, 2014 was only 0.85%.

Obscure indicator hitting half century low suggests an 88% silver rally-January 19, 2014
Silver up 2.81% to the March 9, 2014 article which reversed this call.

Indicator signal has led to precious metal stocks tripling every time over the last 70 years-January 26, 2014
Gold stocks went up 7.41% to March 2, 2014 (when this position was reversed see article)

It is Time to Start Planting the Seeds of Wheat Longs-February 2, 2014
Wheat went up 17.68% to March 9, 2014 when an article was published which reversed this call (see below).

Three More Commodity Indicators at Extremes-February 9, 2014
Commodities went up 7.5% over the next month to the March 9, 2014 article which reversed this call.

Precious Metal Stocks went up 3% three days in a row. What’s next?-March 2, 2014
"Prior instances led to a 19.8% to 34.22% decline from the rally peak to the subsequent low."
From the March 14, 2014 hi to the May 28, 2014 low, gold stocks declined 22.46%.

Commodity indicator hits the 2nd highest daily overbought reading in history-March 9, 2014
From the date of the article to the August 24, 2015 low, commodities declined 32.41%.

Coffee most overbought since at least 1972-March 16, 2014
From the date of this article to its September 24, 2015 low, coffee declined 42.26%.

Commodity Indicator Suggests Gold Stocks Are Retesting Their Lows-March 24, 2014
From March 14, 2014 to May 28, 2014, gold stocks went down 22.46%

History Shows We Should Expect a Gold Stocks Bear Market in 2014-April 15, 2014
From the March 14, 2014 high to the November 5, 2014 low, gold stocks went down 43%.

4 gold stock indicators giving off rare signals - January 13, 2015
Predicted a top in a week. Actual top was 8 days later.

5 gold stocks indicators giving off rare signals - January 22, 2015
Gold stocks went down 24.92% from January 21, 2015 to March 11, 2015