Absolute Value Research

Most Recent

Hedge Fund Manager of the Year - 2015-February 2016 issue & interview conducted in late January 2016-"...the short side in commodities is not as exciting as it was back in 2011 or even a year ago."

Popular Articles

The Worst Possible Asset Class to Invest in Right Now-Feb 18, 2011
"Research suggests the asset class that offers the poorest long-term returns from today's valuation levels is commodities."
From the close on date of the article to the January 20, 2016 low, commodities went down 45.95%.

Oil Spikes Have Always Led to Stock, Commodity Bear Markets-March 7, 2011
A 48% commodity bear market started the next month. The S&P went down by 21.5% from its April 2011 high to its October 2011 low.

Clarification Regarding Silver Comments-Decision Point-April 25, 2011
These quotes on decisionpoint.com were on the exact day of silver’s multi-decade high.

Silver Receives "Bear Market" Label-Jon Nadler-May 17, 2011
Futures Magazine noted the silver top call.

What Is the Fair Value of Gold? Ask Stocks.-September 7, 2011
This article was extremely bearish on gold within one day of gold’s all-time high.

Bullish Signs for Stocks, Silver-October 6, 2011
This was 2 days after the April to Oct 4, 2011 -21.5% correction bottom. The market did not have another correction for 3.5 years.

Silver May Be Trading Below Its Recent Inflation-Adjusted High in the Year 2139-February 16, 2012
Back to being bearish on silver.

Tracking the 10-year Note: Indicator Hitting All-Time Low Says Stocks Will Hit All-Time High-April 11, 2012
Suggested the S&P would hit 1800.

Another Bond Indicator Suggests Stocks Will Hit All-Time Highs-August 2, 2012
Predicted a 37% to 54% stock market rally over the following 16 to 18 months. Stocks ended up going up 35.59% in 17.4 months.

TIPS Reaches an All-Time Record Low of -1.67%. What Are the Implications?-September 20, 2012
Gave sell recommendation to 5-year TIPS. This article was within 6 calendar days of the 5-year TIPS all-time highs. Note this was Absolute Value's first TIPS article, thus making it likely the greatest sell call in TIPS financial history.

When Will Expected Inflation Hit 2.5%?-December 13, 2012
Called the 10-year note & 30-year bond the most overvalued in history 3 days after the 10 and 30 year TIPS all-time high. Note this was Absolute Value's first article on 10 and 30 year TIPS, thus making it likely the greatest sell call in 10-year and 30-year TIPS financial history.

Commodity indicator hits the 2nd highest daily overbought reading in history-March 9, 2014
The short lived commodity bounce is over and it is time for another leg down.

History Shows We Should Expect a Gold Stocks Bear Market in 2014-April 15, 2014
The endless bear market continues in gold stocks.

4 gold stock indicators giving off rare signals - January 13, 2015
Predicted a top in a week. Actual top was 8 days later.

5 gold stocks indicators giving off rare signals - January 22, 2015
Gold stocks went down 24.92% from January 21, 2015 to March 11, 2015





Historical Charts

Trendlines Suggest Silver's Fair Value To Be in the Pre-Teens-September 28, 2011
On the date of the article, silver closed in the $30s. On December 14, 2015, silver hit $13.73.

Is Warren Buffett Correct About Gold?-February 29, 2012
From the date of the article to the December 2, 2015 low, gold declined by over 39%.

10-Year Note Yield Hits All-Time Low-May 30, 2012
From the date of this article until the December 2013 research report
which reversed this call, bond yields went up over 40%.

Indicator at Levels Only Seen Near the Epic 1932
and 2009 Stock Market Lows
-August 17, 2012
This article predicted the S&P would hit 1800 by Nov. 30, 2013.
On November 30, 2013 the S&P closed at 1805.

Coffee most overbought since at least 1972-March 16, 2014
From the date of this article to its September 24, 2015 low, coffee declined by 42.26%.